Wait or Buy Now? A Rate-Scenario Mortgage Calculator

How to read the result

The headline verdict tells you who wins on lifetime cost, ignoring rent. The rent line is added separately because most people forget to count it. The break-even rate is the most useful diagnostic: if your view on where rates will land in 6-24 months is above the break-even, buying now is cheaper. Below, waiting is cheaper.

The math has a non-obvious wrinkle: home price rises during the wait can erase a lot of rate-fall benefit. A 1.5 percentage-point rate drop sounds dramatic, but a 6% price rise plus that rate drop can leave the lifetime cost roughly unchanged. The calculator handles the wedge automatically.

What to model first

• Base case: today's rate, your local market's 12-month price expectation (your realtor will give you a number; if not, use 3-5% as a national-average baseline).
• Stress case: rates flat (no change), prices up 6-8%. This is what waiting looks like if the rate fall doesn't materialise.
• Best case: rates fall 1-2 percentage points, prices flat. Decide whether the lifetime saving is worth 12-24 months of renting before you commit.

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